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Bio-economic modeling

The bio-economic and climate change modeling work aims at mimicking the current decision making process of farmers in a systems context. Simulations are used to predict the likely outcomes at the system level in general, and different farm typologies in particular, under several combinations of different social, economic, bio-physical, policy, institutional, market, technological and climate change scenarios.

The ultimate goal of this exercise is to provide insight on the effects of various technological, policy, institutional and marketing interventions under different climate change scenarios and help decision makers by identifying the optimal courses of action for achieving the desired outcomes (including poverty reduction, food security and sustainability) at both the system and sub system levels. A small bio-economic modeling exercise conducted on Syrian wheat farms for example employed a simple optimization model to provide empirical evidence that a policy which introduces a penalty for excessive application of irrigation water (PEAIW) would compel farmers to adopt water saving technologies. The study also showed that by so doing, the policy will not only lead to groundwater conservation, but also to Pareto-optimal distribution of benefits (i.e., a situation where nobody loses and at best some or all gain).

Contact person: Yigezu Atnafe Yigezu (y.yigezu@cgiar.org), PhD

Yigezu earned both his MSc and PhD, from the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University in the US – with a focus on international development and policy analysis.  His research interests include subsistence production, productivity and decision analysis, technology adoption, dissemination and impact, market and policy analysis, and sustainable resource and environmental management.