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hanasser valley lies about 40 km east of Aleppo in north-west Syria. It's a wide valley between two low hills--Jebel El Has, about 550 m, to the west and Jebel Shebibe, about 400 m, to the east. The valley floor is used for the cultivation of barley, some wheat with supplemental irrigation, and a very little irrigated cotton. On the slopes of the hills, farmers graze their sheep. It is a harsh environment. It is hot and exposed. In many parts of the area, the ground water is now too saline to drink, and drinking water must be brought from Aleppo. And there is a real problem with grazing. Beyond Jebel Shebibe lies the steppe, on which farmers have traditionally grazed their sheep. They are no longer permitted to do so. This is a conservation measure; large areas of the steppe in the region has become overgrazed, and the authorities have been forced to close off parts of it to allow the natural vegetation to regenerate. In the case of Khanasser, however, the problem has simply been moved elsewhere. Now the sheep which grazed east of the area also graze on the valley slopes, leading to even more overgrazing of the valley. The slopes of the two jebels have thus been badly affected by water erosion. Water erosion is a real threat in the region. This may seem curious; surely the problem in the dry areas is too little water, not too much? The problem is that such rainfall as there is, is poorly distributed in time and space. The Mediterranean has winter rainfall, and for much of the year it does not rain at all, but at other times there may be violent precipitation for short periods. This is particularly harmful if the soil surface is not protected by vegetation, such as directly after the dry season. The impact of the rain on the surface may itself loosen the surface, rendering the soil vulnerable to removal by water flow. Where the flow concentrates in channels, this may lead to the formation of erosion rills and gullies, down which further soil will be pushed by the flow. Heavy runoff down bare overgrazed areas may remove so much soil that the grazing will never regenerate. If researchers are to find ways of halting this, they must first understand exactly what is happening. We decided to model the major biophysical factors involved by collecting data on topography, rainfall, soil-nutrient and organic carbon content, and the soil's capacity to hold water. Having done this in a number of locations, one can then enter this data and, using a Geographical Information System (GIS), create a graphical model from which the scientist can see at once the state of the soil in given locations, and the factors that might have influenced it. Before describing what we did, it is important to state what we did not do. Water erosion, like other natural phenomena related to agriculture, is not solely a matter of biophysical factors. Socioeconomic factors are crucial. They were in this case; we guess that the problem has been worsened by overgrazing. It follows that the short answer is to get the sheep away from the affected area. But this
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