Aleppo, Syria. In 1991 Syria, the breadbasket of the ancient world, became self-sufficient in wheat for the first time since the 1950s..
Since 1989, production has virtually doubled to 3.6m tonnes, due to new technologyincreasing national income by an estimated SL 17.4 billion (US $414 million) annually. And yield, 0.6 t/ha in the 1950s and early 1960s and 1.5 t/ha in the late 1980s, had climbed to 2.6 t/ha by 1993.
This is partly the result of new varieties - but of much else besides.
What were the main factors? Syria's Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, which spearheaded the campaign to improve output, decided to find out through a farmer survey conducted jointly with ICARDA. It was decided that the survey should also study whether the new technologies offered to farmers had been suitable in the first place something which is often overlooked. The study covered the1990 to 1993 seasons, and the data has now been digested.
The survey found that the rise in production had been the result of several factors. New varieties headed the list, accounting for an estimated 35% of the increase. In 1973, only 15% of Syria's wheat area was planted to high-yielding varieties. Today, 80% is; and over 70% to 'Cham' lines bred by ICARDA in the 1980s, in a joint program with CIMMYT and the national research systems.
Better management, irrigation and increased fertilizer use were estimated as having contributed 23%, 19% and 23%. Productivity of irrigated wheat had improved far more than that of rainfed wheat. Irrigated wheat area has more than doubled since 1973. And the area that is both irrigated and planted to high-yielding varieties increased from 50,000 to 250,000 hectares between 1973 and 1990. Irrigation of wheat is very profitable, and the survey team found that about 85% of those farmers having a water source used it to irrigate all or part of their wheat crop. This helps explain why production has risen despite a slight decline in wheat area since 1980.
The survey itself has had three other very helpful results.
First of all, the first-year results showed that specifically-adapted varieties were not always being grown in environments that best exploited their genetic potential. The Government has now modified its seed-distribution mechanism to cater for this.
Second, as expected, the dramatic increase in Syrian wheat production was the result of new varieties in conjunction with a package of inputs and management techniques. This confirms once again that the "green revolution" is still alive - new varieties can double and even triple yields. But they cannot do so without good management.
Third, the survey team found evidence that potential yields can be even higher, and further work in research and extension is needed. But the increase has been worthwhile, and so has the study into the way it has been achieved.
Similar studies have recently been conducted elsewhere. ICARDA has made a major study of economic returns on improved wheat technology in Upper Egypt in partnership with national researchers. They found that farmers who switched from traditional methods to an intermediate package of technology could expect marginal rates of return of 400% on their investment. Farmers shifting from this intermediate stage to the full package could expect an additional 281%.
Through such studies, ICARDA and its national partners can learn how best to feed the region's growing population within the context of a fragile natural-resource base.