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The
dry areas of the developing world occupy
some 3 billion hectares, and are home to
one-quarter of the global population. About
16% of the population lives in chronic poverty,
particularly in marginalized rainfed areas.
Characterized by water scarcity, the dry
areas are also challenged by rapid population
growth, frequent droughts, high climatic
variability, land degradation and desertification,
and widespread poverty. Poverty and other
social problems are leading to unsustainable
agriculture, degradation of natural resources
and increased migration. Another challenge
is the impact of globalization, due to changes
in the world trade system and potentially
skewed forces of competition. This instability
is further exacerbated by the unrest in
financial markets.
Food insecurity, poverty, and poor access
to natural resources also manifest themselves
in conflicts. Conflicts have been concentrated
in regions heavily dependent on agriculture,
destroying food crop, livestock and water
supply sources, biodiversity and seed systems,
and resulting in long-term damage to the
environment and compromising people's livelihoods.
Global climate change is a serious threat
to the environment, natural resources and
production systems in dry areas. The current
global median projections from the Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict an
increase in mean temperature and a decrease
in mean annual rainfall in many of the already
marginal dry areas. Such changes will result
in lower river flows, increased evapotranspiration,
greater terminal heat stress, drier soils,
and shorter growing seasons; all of which
would impact on agricultural productivity.
Climatologists also predict more frequent
climatic extremes such as longer droughts,
more intense storm events and even extreme
low temperature spikes that will damage/destroy
crops and vegetation that are not adapted
to these stresses. Both coastal and inland
salinization risks are likely to increase,
with even age-old natural aquifers at risk
of contamination. There is a real possibility
that some areas will become uninhabitable,
and that includes some low-lying fertile
areas. The Stern Report, The Economics
of Climate Change, released in November
2006, calls for urgent action against global
climate change (CC). It suggests that global
warming will shrink the global economy by
20%, unless urgent action is taken.
Clearly the threat to the dry areas is particularly
acute. There is an urgent need to develop
not only technical options, but also policy
and institutional options that improve livelihoods
and increase food security under future
CC, which in turn will contribute to reducing
poverty and desperation.
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