IN

V.SEED USE AND SUPPLY

V.1. SEED USE

V.1.1 PLANTING RATES

Average, or commonly-used, planting rates reported are:

Irrigated wheat: 110-170 kg/ha (Manan reports 125 kg/ha)
Rainfed wheat: 80-100 kg/ha (Manan reports 63 kg/ha, others around 42-50)
Rice: 50 kg/ha
Maize: 50 kg/ha
Barley: 125 kg/ha
Chickpea: 40 kg/ha
Lentil: 70 kg/ha
Beans: (kidney and pinto): 50 kg/ha
Potato: 3,000 kg/ha
These are approximate; considerable variation is reported, in exact planting rates in different places.

V.1.2. CEREAL SEED REQUIREMENTS

The "theoretical" need for seed (in this case, seed means all material planted by farmers) of the main crops is shown in Table 16 below. This table was compiled by Dennis et al., partially based on data in Special Alert No. 315, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Afghanistan.

Table 16 (PDF File 66Kb)
Estimated Seed Needs for Major Crops in 1998 and 2001, plus Seed Aid Needed in 2002

V.2. CONDITION OF NEEDS FOR SEED

V.2.1. MARKET SITUATION

It has been reported that wheat prices are low in Afghanistan, and higher in neighboring Pakistan. If this situation holds, it is to be expected that, regardless of local needs, merchants will transport some of this year's production to Pakistan and possibly to other neighboring countries. This would reduce the domestic supply of wheat grain and informal-sector seed, and increase the need for imports and emergency supplementation. However, such transport of grain to neighboring countries would have to take into account the comparative advantage after the costs of transport and handling are included.

V.2.2. REFUGEE SITUATION

Reportedly, large numbers of refugees are returning daily. One estimate placed the return of refugees to Kabul at some 140,000/month.

The refugees reportedly have little in the way of possessions. As the population is largely rural and there do not appear to be employment opportunities for all the refugees, it appears likely that most will return to their original areas and depend on farming for subsistence.

The refugees will thus require supplemental assistance in seed and fertilizer, so there appears to be a continuing need for emergency assistance in these inputs.

V.2.3. ESTIMATED TOTAL SEED NEEDS

There are no real statistics available on any current situation. Various estimates have been made, and the accuracy of the estimate depends on the extent of the estimator's knowledge of the current situation, and how much the situation is changing.

Our own estimate, as shown below, is based on conditions estimated by local professionals with considerable experience in Afghanistan's agriculture. It was recommended that, as the drought at this time appears to be breaking and the hopes for peace holding, the crop area planted in 1978 (the last year of peace with statistics) be used for the area planted. To separate wheat into fall- and spring-planted, the usual figures were used: 90% of the wheat is fall-planted and 10% is spring-planted. Planting rates also vary, but the average rates provided by Manan were used. There is a daily inflow of returning refugees, and the population has grown since 1978, but the arable land is limited and most refugees have little in the way of resources, so the 1978 crop area figures seem reasonable (collected/provided by Manan).

Table 17 (PDF File 50Kb)
Estimated National Needs for Seed, Fall 2002

Table 18 (PDF File 50Kb)
Estimated National Needs for Seed, Spring 2003

V.3. IDENTIFYING TOTAL SEED NEEDS

V.3.1. DETERMINING NEEDS

All farmers, obviously, do not cultivate all the minor crops, but many do cultivate some "minor" crops (minor in the sense of area occupied; most of these are "major" in terms of nutritional needs), for which no estimates of seed needs are available. However, in determining the seed needs of a typical farmer (farming a small land-holding), the average area planted and planting rate should be used.

As soon as a statistical base can be established, some efforts to determine total seed needs for all crops (including lentil, kidney and pinto beans, and each kind of vegetable) should be surveyed and estimated. In the process, average area planted (or amount planted) by individual farmers in several size classes should be identified, to put some quantity estimation into the needs of individual farm families for seed of each crop grown. This should be compiled into a useful form, perhaps similar to that shown below. This should include all crops, field crops, vegetables, spices, herbs, etc., which are grown from seed.

It may be possible to compile an initial indication of this data from the assessment survey to be conducted by ICARDA.

Table 19
Average Farm Family Requirements for Seed

Crop/ Vegetable	____ Farm Size		____ Farm Size		____ Farm Size		____ Farm Size

The number of farm families in each size category could be used to show the total seed needs for each crop king in each region. This could be used to (1) determine import and/or emergency seed needs, and (2) potential for domestic seed production as an additional agro-industry.

V.3.2. SURVEY TO DETERMINE REAL NEEDS

One of the work approaches of this assessment was "If required, the team may wish to constitute teams that collect information within the provinces and districts." Because of the short time available, travel and language constraints, and other factors, it became clear that such a team was essential.

The WFP/FAO National Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission offered to include in their 8 regional teams, representatives from ICARDA/FHC to assess seed and crop improvement needs as the team conducted its overall assessment. However, discussions brought out that ICARDA/FHC must conduct assessments in four different areas: crop and seed improvement, livestock and forages, soil and water, and horticulture. It was therefore more expedient to field a special detailed local assessment team to work in different provinces and regions. This team was from the Afghanistan Survey Team, based in Peshawar, and experienced in field surveys in Afghanistan.

A fair amount of time was required to complete the survey. However, this data is essential to support both emergency seed supply and long/short-term development of self-sustaining local crop improvement and seed production.

A special survey questionnaire was developed for general rural household conditions, and for each major crop. Survey results are included in a later section of this review.

V.3.3. SURVEY OF NGO'S

In discussing seed supply with NGO's, the following guideline was used.

SEED SERVICE TO AFGHANISTAN (NGOs)

Please help us to help you by completing as much as possible of this questionnaire on your seed services. Please add any additional comments you wish to make.

Agency:

Address (include telephone, fax, e-mail):
Other areas of activity in addition to agriculture:
Provinces and Districts in Afghanistan where you work:
Expatriate staff and their seed training/experience:
Local staff and their seed training/experience:
Number of farm families you serve:
What seed have you supplied?

Crop	Variety	No. Prov/Dist.	MT Seed	Source of seed	No of farm families

What linkages/follow-up have you had with farmers who received the seed?
How easily could you reach your farmers in need and supply them seed?
On which terms did you give seed to the farmers?
How did they feel the varieties/seed performed?
How did the farmers like the varieties/seed?
What other inputs did the farmers receive apart from seed and from which source(s)?(fertilizer, pesticide and irrigation, tools)
What problems have you encountered in distributing the seed? Comments on how these could be overcome?
How effective do you think was this seed intervention and what impact do you expect?
What do you intend to do with the seed the farmers will harvest?
What advice can you give to guide improvements in the future? What would you like to see?
Have you arranged any seed production in Afghanistan? How much? What kind? What facilities do you have?
Which government policies encourage your seed operations? (credit, subsidies?)
Which government policies hinder your seed business? (tax?)
Which support do you think the government should give to promote seed enterprise development?

V.3.4. SEED REPLACEMENT RATE (SRR)

FAO (annual report, Jan. 2001) stated the commonly-accepted view that, based on the number of generations to which seed can be re-multiplied without renewal, farmer seed of different crops should be replaced with new seed after the period of crop years as shown in the following table.

It should be kept in mind that a "seed replacement rate" is somewhat academic, and has been called "an excuse for not promoting greater acceptance of improved seed".

Table 20
Seed Replacement Rate (SRR)

Crop	Ideal Renewal Period (Years)	Ideal Seed Replacement Rate (%)	Actual SRR in 2000 (%)
Wheat	4	25	2.3
Barley	4	25	0.07
Rice	4	25	2.1
Maize	3	33	9.1